Après avoir été négative, la perspective associée à cette note est désormais stable. Standard & Poor's avait dégradé, en mars 2011, d'un cran la note souveraine de la Polynésie française, de BBB- à BB+, estimant que l'instabilité politique du pays contrariait la mise en oeuvre de réformes structurelles essentielles.
Cette dégradation avait fait passer l’archipel de la catégorie "investissement" à la catégorie "spéculative".
Le scenario retenu par l’agence de notation financière pour la période 2012-2014, prend en compte une maîtrise des dépenses de fonctionnement liées à l’administration du Pays. « De plus, notre scénario de travail tient compte du bénéfice pour la Polynésie française d’un transfert financier exceptionnel de 6 milliards XPF de l’Etat, en 2012 », précise l’agence S & P avant de relativiser, « Nous pourrions abaisser la note jusqu’à cinq crans si nous pensions que les transferts financiers directs ou indirects de l’Etat français venaient à s’amenuiser compte tenu de la faible capacité de la Polynésie française à emprunter des liquidités bancaires d’organismes privés. Cette note pourrait également être abaissée si la Polynésie française était inapte à apporter des améliorations structurelles de ses performances budgétaires »
French Polynesia Affirmed At 'BB+' On Expected Continued State Liquidity Support; Outlook Stable
We expect French Polynesia to continue receiving liquidity support from the French government.
We are affirming our 'BB+' long-term rating on French Polynesia.
The stable outlook reflects our view that French Polynesia will gradually restore its budgetary situation.
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) July 31, 2012--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has affirmed its 'BB+' long-term issuer credit rating on the Overseas Country of French Polynesia. The outlook is stable.
The rating on French Polynesia reflects our view of its "very negative" financial management, its "negative" liquidity situation, its high level of contingent liabilities, and its poor economic growth prospects. We also think French Polynesia has weak control over its government-related entities (GREs), inadequate accounting practices--though currently improving, and sizable exposure to derivatives, despite having decreased to 15.5% of direct debt stock in 2012 from 21.7% in 2011.
The rating is supported by French Polynesia's "evolving but sound" institutional framework, our expectation of a structural improvement of its budgetary performance, and its moderate budgetary flexibility. In our base-case scenario for 2012-2014, we believe French Polynesia will maintain its tight control over operating expenditure, particularly staff costs. We also expect it to post very limited deficits after capital accounts, averaging less than 1% of adjusted total revenues, compared with 11% in 2011 and 16% in 2010. Moreover, our base-case scenario assumes that French Polynesia will benefit from the full amount of the CFP Franc (XFP) 6 billion extraordinary state grant in 2012.
Thanks to low deficits after capital accounts, French Polynesia will likely stabilize its tax-supported debt to about 96% until 2014. We include in our calculation of tax-supported debt various entities that are not self-supporting (according to our methodology) such as French Polynesia's airline company Air Tahiti Nui and the Polynesian housing office.
The stable outlook reflects our expectations under our base-case scenario that French Polynesia will structurally improve its budgetary performance and
stabilize its tax-supported debt over 2012-2014. It also takes into account our view that the French government will continue to provide liquidity support, directly or indirectly.
In our upside scenario, a tighter rein on operating expenditure and slightly stronger revenues would allow French Polynesia to post better budgetary
performances and structurally improve its liquidity position. Together with a closer management of GREs and the effective implementation of better accounting practices, this could improve our view of French Polynesia's financial management. We could then consider taking a positive rating action.
Conversely, we could lower the rating by up to five notches if we believed that the French government's direct or indirect liquidity support were likely to weaken while French Polynesia's access to private external liquidity remained very weak. We could also lower the rating if French Polynesia were unable to structurally improve its budgetary performance, with widening deficits after capital accounts.
However, both our upside and downside scenarios are unlikely at this stage.
RELATED CRITERIA AND RESEARCH
Methodology For Rating International Local And Regional Governments,
Sept. 20, 2010
Institutional Framework Assessments For International Local And Regional
Governments, Dec. 19, 2011
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